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A Y-shaped economic recovery

The Three Sides of Risk

This is best story you will read this week. 

The tail-end consequences of risk – like pandemics, and depressions – are what make the pages of history books. They’re all that matter. They’re all you should focus on.

Tail-end events are all that matter.

The Sickness in Our Food Supply

“Only when the tide goes out,” Warren Buffett observed, “do you discover who’s been swimming naked.” For our society, the Covid-19 pandemic represents an ebb tide of historic proportions, one that is laying bare vulnerabilities and inequities that in normal times have gone undiscovered. Nowhere is this more evident than in the American food system.

This is not really different in other places in the world. We waste too much food, and now this became very clear. 

For local farmers and smaller businesses it’s easier to adapt. Besides that, we – the consumer – are slowly making the shift to community-supported agriculture.

The renaissance of home cooking, and baking, is one of the happier consequences of the lockdown, good news both for our health and for farmers who grow actual food. 

One Chart To Catch You Up On 2020….And The Economy

Every company is figuring out how to do more with less. Once they figure it out, those jobs are not coming back. 

On my run this morning I listened to the podcast The Portal. Where Balaji Srinivasan talked about the current challenges we face. At the end of the podcast he talked about the same idea, in a different way. That we now experience a Y shaped economic recovery.

What he means is that we are now on a different branch. The old economy; travel, restaurants, bars, events, will not recover soon. Bio, info (digital), crypto; basically ‘Tech’ will grow even faster. Things that first needed 50 years, will now be developed in 10 years.

How plagues change the world

The global crisis unleashed by the coronavirus pandemic is starting to look like a historic inflection point. While we do not know how long the outbreak will last and how severe its fallout will be, it is difficult to shake the feeling that we are now at a threshold between two eras.

This pandemic, too, will pass – but the after-effects may remain with us for a long time to come

Enjoy your weekend.